• 债务、可持续发展、能源、反腐败成为首要议程

• 国家直面经济危机
  

加纳经济危机于 2022 年达到顶峰，主要由结构性缺陷和外部冲击共同导致，包括新冠疫情、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以及全球金融环境收紧。即便在疫情前，该国长期采取扩张性财政政策，主要依赖商业债务融资，加剧了宏观经济脆弱性。

到 2022 年，加纳债务占 GDP 比例从 2021 年的 79.6% 飙升至 92.4%，通胀率从 12.6% 骤增至 54.1%，加纳塞地大幅贬值，外汇储备枯竭。

失去欧洲债券市场准入资格和投资者信心下降引发资本外流，进一步削弱经济。加纳政府高度依赖国内借贷推高利率，抑制私营部门活动，2022 年 GDP 增速降至 3.1%，财政危机恶化。

作为应对，政府于 2022 年 12 月推出《国内债务交换计划》（DDEP），重组地方债券、可可票据及养老基金持仓，参与率高达 95%。随后在 G20 共同框架下完成外债重组，获得国际货币基金组织 30 亿美元扩展信贷安排（ECF）救助。

面对这种经济困境，Mahama 总统宣布了一项更为审慎的财政政策：包括将政府规模缩减至 60 位部长和副部长，限制总统工作人员的任命，并优先考虑公共支出的效率。他还提议转向 24 小时经济，旨在提高关键部门的生产力并创造就业机会。

然而，专家认为稳定经济需要深刻的结构改革——特别是在税收管理、债务重组和国有企业治理方面。

预计能源问题将主导论坛讨论，鉴于其持续的财务挑战以及在国民生产力中的作用。由于收入收集效率低下和不符合财务规定，该行业的融资缺口已扩大至 2025 年的 22 亿美元（340 亿加纳塞地）。

尽管前政府在八年内征收了超过 450 亿加纳塞地的能源部门征税（ESLA），但它留下了 700 亿加纳塞地的债务。

独立电力生产商（IPP）和燃料供应商因未支付欠款而一再威胁要暂停运营，引发了关于电力供应稳定的担忧。

National Economic Dialogue Begins Today

• debt, sustainable growth, energy, anti-corruption top agenda

• as nation confronts economic crisis head-on

The National Economic Dialogue (NED) begins today in Accra, bringing together government officials, business leaders, policy experts and civil society representatives to deliberate on pressing economic challenges facing the nation.

The two-day event, which will be held at the Accra International Conference Centre, is expected to set the tone for economic recovery and long-term stability following years of fiscal mismanagement, mounting debt and weak economic fundamentals.

President John Dramani Mahama, who will deliver the keynote address on the theme ‘Resetting Ghana: Building the Economy We Want Together’, has positioned the dialogue as a crucial step in implementing structural reforms that will guide policy decisions in the coming years.

The forum is expected to focus on macroeconomic stability, debt management, energy sector restructuring, revitalisation of education and healthcare and tackling corruption. The dialogue’s outcomes will shape government’s fiscal strategy, particularly as the Minister for Finance prepares to present the 2025 budget to parliament on Tuesday, March 11.

The issues

The nation’s economic crisis came to a head in 2022, driven by a combination of structural weaknesses and external shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tightening global financial conditions. Even before the pandemic, the nation had maintained an expansionary fiscal policy financed largely by commercial debt – which worsened its macroeconomic vulnerabilities.

By 2022, the country faced a steep rise in debt levels from 79.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021 to 92.4 percent in 2022, soaring inflation from 12.6 percent to 54.1 percent, a rapid depreciation of the cedi and dwindling foreign reserves.

The loss of access to Eurobond markets and declining investor confidence triggered capital outflows, further weakening the economy. As government relied heavily on domestic borrowing, rising interest rates stifled private sector activity – slowing GDP growth to 3.1 percent in 2022 and exacerbating the fiscal crisis.

In response, government launched a Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) in December 2022, restructuring local bonds, cocoa bills and pension fund holdings. This was followed by external debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework, with Ghana securing an IMF bailout under the Extended Credit Facility.

The domestic debt restructuring – completed in two phases – led to fiscal savings of approximately GH¢61.7billion but severely impacted financial institutions, which held a significant portion of the restructured debt.

While the restructuring helped reduce immediate debt servicing costs, the debt burden remained unsustainable….requiring further negotiations with creditors. By late 2024, Ghana owed approximately US$42billion across multilateral, bilateral and commercial debt categories, with significant repayment obligations scheduled over the next decade.

As at the end of 2024, public debt stood at GH¢721billion, despite the aforementioned  debt rework and a return to the international monetary fund (IMF) in 2022 for the 17th time since independence.

Persistent inefficiencies at state-owned enterprises (SEOs) have exacerbated the problem, leaving the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) with liabilities of GH¢68billion while COCOBOD’s debt burden reached GH¢32.5billion.

The country’s debt servicing obligations over the next four years are projected to total GH¢280billion, with GH¢150billion allocated to domestic debt and GH¢130billion to external debt.

Meanwhile, inflation, which was projected to end 2024 at 18 percent, closed the year at 23.8 percent – putting further strain on businesses and households.

In response to this economic distress, President Mahama has announced a more prudent fiscal policy: including reducing the size of government to 60 ministers and deputy ministers, capping presidential staff appointments and prioritising efficiency in public expenditure.

He has also proposed shifting to a 24-hour economy, aimed at increasing productivity across key sectors and generating employment.

However, experts argue that stabilising the economy will require deep structural reform – particularly in tax administration, debt restructuring and state-owned enterprise governance.

The energy sector is expected to dominate discussions at the forum, given its ongoing financial challenges and role in national productivity. The sector’s financing gap has expanded to US$2.2billion (GH¢34billion) for 2025, as revenue collection inefficiencies and non-compliance with financial regulations have weakened cash flow.

Despite the previous administration collecting over GH¢45billion in Energy Sector Levies (ESLA) over eight years, it left behind a GH¢70billion debt.

Independent power producers (IPPs) and fuel suppliers have repeatedly threatened to suspend operations over unpaid arrears, raising concerns about stability of the electricity supply.

President Mahama has directed the Ministry of Energy to implement urgent reforms, including enforcing a single revenue collection account, strengthening the Cash Waterfall Mechanism and involving the private sector in metering and billing services.

His administration has also committed to transitioning toward 100 percent gas-based power production to reduce reliance on costly crude oil imports, which have weighed heavily on the balance of payments.

Additionally, government is expected to operationalise a Renewable Energy and Green Transition Fund that will accelerate investments in solar, off-grid energy solutions and electric vehicle infrastructure.

Beyond energy, the dialogue will also address the deteriorating state of Ghana’s healthcare sector. The Ministry of Health has inherited GH¢15billion in liabilities, covering unpaid medical supply contracts and co-financing obligations for health projects.

The Agenda 111 hospital construction project, launched under the previous administration, has struggled to make progress despite US$400million already disbursed. Government estimates that GH¢22billion will be required to complete the initiative and a public-private partnership model is being explored to accelerate delivery.

In the immediate term, the healthcare system is facing additional pressure following a withdrawal of US$78million in USAID support which had funded malaria, maternal and child health, nutrition and HIV/AIDS programmes.

Government has directed the Minister of Finance to allocate emergency funding to prevent service disruptions, particularly in the northern regions where USAID-funded interventions were most concentrated.

Additionally, President Mahama has announced plans to revive the ONUADOR mobile healthcare vans – a fleet of mobile clinics that will provide outpatient, dental and eye-care services in remote areas.

The state of education is also expected to feature prominently in discussions. While 3.4 million students have benefitted from the Free Senior High School (SHS) policy since its inception, implementation challenges remain.

Government has committed to improving infrastructure to eliminate the double-track system, decentralising food procurement to enhance efficiency and reinstating Parent-Teacher Associations (PTAs) to strengthen school governance.

Meanwhile, at the tertiary level, a no-fee tertiary admission policy will be introduced to ease financial burdens on students, supported by an expanded Student Loan Plus programme.

Corruption and governance reforms will be another major focus of the dialogue. President Mahama has launched the Operation Recover All Loot (ORAL) initiative, which has already received over 2,000 complaints of alleged mismanagement and state asset diversion.

A newly established anti-corruption unit at the presidency will oversee investigations, while a bill is expected to be introduced in parliament to regulate and restrict the sale of public assets to politically connected individuals.

Recent high-profile cases, including the SkyTrain project payment scandal and National Service ghost-names scandal, are being investigated with asset recovery efforts already underway.

The National Economic Dialogue comes at a time when the nation is seeking to rebuild investor confidence and restore fiscal discipline. Government has already reached a preliminary Memorandum of Understanding with Official Creditors on debt restructuring, a crucial step toward securing further disbursements under the IMF-supported economic recovery programme.

While the dialogue is expected to produce a roadmap for economic recovery, analysts have stressed that the action which has eluded previous such attempts – implementation – will be key.

Previous economic consultations have yielded limited results due to political gridlock and weak policy follow-through. However, with the scale of the current crisis, there is growing consensus that urgent and decisive action is needed.

Business leaders, development partners and civil society groups will be watching closely to see whether the forum translates into tangible economic reforms that can stabilise the economy, create jobs and improve living conditions for Ghanaians.

来源：财经在线

翻译：无尽夏

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