John Dramani Mahama 先生以历史性方式重返总统宝座，他承诺通过重置加纳经济来弥补前 Akufo-Addo 政府的不足，这一任务面临着巨大风险。未来的道路需要艰难抉择。

这些艰难抉择必须在社会救济与财政纪律之间取得平衡，而此时正值兑现多项竞选承诺的压力剧增之际。然而，加纳经济已在国内外双重冲击下面临重创，其中最严重的是被国际资本市场全面封杀。

要扭转这种局面需要紧急调整策略，但 Mahama 2.0 能否带领加纳走出当前经济泥潭仍存疑问。

与前任总统 Nana Akufo-Addo 先生类似，Mahama 总统的胜选同样依托于雄心勃勃的经济刺激政策。Akufo-Addo 先生曾提出“一区一厂”计划，而 Mahama 总统则主打 “24 小时经济”。

尽管前政府推出了 “道路年”、“一区一坝” 和 “议程 111” 等大规模基础设施建设计划，但 Mahama 总统团队提出了“大推动”等新方案。

然而，前政府的施政遗产包括持续的汇率波动、通胀攀升、生活成本高涨、私营部门增长受阻以及不可持续的债务水平。更严峻的是，新冠疫情和全球大宗商品价格震荡暴露了经济结构性缺陷，迫使加纳接受国际货币基金组织（IMF）30 亿美元的救助。

就在 Mahama 总统组建团队落实承诺之际，导致新爱国党（NPP）下台的老问题依然存在，仍然可能威胁其经济重置计划。意识到这一现实，Mahama 总统的首要举措是发起全国经济对话，旨在梳理挑战并协调公共需求与政府政策。

在公共债务占国民生产总值（GDP）超过 70% 的当下，这场对话来得恰逢其时。对话固然重要，真正的考验在于后续行动。仅债务利息支付（包括国内债务置换计划（DDEP）和外债重组的双重打击）就占政府年度收入的近半，这使得国家债务存量依然极不可持续。

Mahama 政府将于三月提交的首份预算不仅是体现政策意图的关键节点，更是要在改善国内收入的同时，取消不受欢迎的电子税、博彩税和新冠疫情税的经济平衡术。

在面临潜在收入损失的情况下，如何证明 "优先减轻消费者和企业负担" 的政策能带来足够增长以支撑改革，这尤其具有挑战性——因为目前尚无明确替代方案填补废除这些税种带来的数十亿加纳塞地缺口。

若缺乏持续收入，巨额能源债务难以清偿，项目执行不力和基础设施滞后将形成恶性循环。正如加纳新任财长 Cassiel Ato Forson 先生计划将税收占国民生产总值比重从 13.8% 提升至 16%，其面临的重大课题是如何实现这一目标，而这将在首份预算中得到体现。

Mahama 总统对本地货币的处理将至关重要。投资者、商界和普通民众都在期待稳定塞地对主要贸易货币汇率的具体计划和行动，无论是通过外商直接投资、战略商品出口，还是实施黄金委员会倡议，抑或是充实加纳央行的外汇储备，任何方案都值得探讨。

在此背景下，关于现行国际货币基金组织援助计划是否延期的争议日益加剧。无论是否延期，重新评估该计划势在必行，这可能意味着调整财政目标以容纳更多增长导向支出。但需谨慎行事，以免破坏新政府带来的微弱投资信心回升。

对许多加纳人而言，Mahama 总统及其党派，全国民主大会党（NDC）的回归被视为经济转机的信号。国债招标的超量认购和一些标书的大规模流标或许预示着经济重置计划的前景。

不过，新政府带来的善意不应被过度透支。Mahama 总统必须汲取加纳这个曾经的非洲经济明星（2019 年全球增速最快经济体）的教训，保持审慎。

诚然，加纳经济需要重置来提升全民生活水平和繁荣程度。但 Mahama 总统面临的真正考验在于：能否将重置的承诺转化为可持续的经济复苏？唯有时间能给出答案。在此，我们祝愿新政府一切顺利。

Mahama’s Comeback, An Economic Reset and What Lies Ahead – Nii Larte Lartey writes

John Dramani Mahama made a historic return to the presidency, but his promise to reset the Ghanaian economy to fix the shortcomings of the erstwhile Akufo-Addo government carries high stakes. The journey ahead demands tough choices.

Tough choices that must balance social relief with fiscal discipline in the midst of mounting pressure to deliver on the numerous promises made to the electorate. But the country’s economy has been battered both on the domestic and international fronts, the worst of it being a total shut-out from the international capital market.

Fixing this will require urgent recalibration, but can Mahama 2.0 lead Ghana out of its current economic quagmire?

John Mahama’s victory, just like that of his predecessor President Nana Akufo-Addo, was won on the back of ambitious policies targeted at stimulating job creation, economic growth and industrialisation. While Akufo-Addo promised one-district-one-factory, Mahama has promised the 24-hour economy.

For policies like the Year of Roads, One-District-One-Dam, and Agenda 111, which promised massive infrastructural investment in the erstwhile government, Mahama has proposed the Big Push and so on.

In spite of all the grand promises, the past administration was marked by prolonged currency volatility, rising inflation, high cost of living, stifled private sector growth and unsustainable debt levels. Worse still, external shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and global commodity price fluctuations exposed structural weaknesses in the economy, forcing a $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout.

Even as Mahama assembles his team to deliver on his promises, many of the issues that got the erstwhile NPP government booted out still linger and could threaten the success of his reset agenda. Aware of this reality, President Mahama’s first major move is a national economic dialogue for stakeholder engagement to unpick the challenges and align public needs with government policies.

At a period when public debt sits at more than 70% to GDP, nothing could be timelier. A dialogue is a good start. After the talk comes the inevitable heavy lifting. Debt servicing, including the double whammy of the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) and External Debt Restructuring alone, currently accounts for nearly half of government’s annual revenue. Consequently, the country’s debt stock remains profoundly unsustainable.

Mahama’s first budget to be presented in March is not only a critical test of his policy intentions but also an economic balancing act of improving domestic revenue while yet, removing unpopular taxes such as the E-Levy, Betting tax and COVID-19 Levy.

With an apparent potential loss in revenue, it waits to be seen whether the government’s ‘priority of priorities’ – easing the burden on consumers and businesses – will deliver the needed growth to justify the act itself. This is especially because there isn’t until now, any clear direction of alternatives to fill the multi-billion-cedi hole expected to be created by the scrapping of these tax handles.

Without sustained revenue, the huge energy sector debt, for example, cannot be cleared, and the cycle of poor program implementation and infrastructure development will continue. As finance minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson eyes raising tax revenue-to-GDP ratio from 13.8% to 16%, he faces a big question of how and the maiden budget should answer this.

Mahama’s handling of the local currency will be important. Investors, businesses, and ordinary citizens alike are keen to see clear plans and actions that will stabilise the cedi’s performance against other major trading currencies. Whether through foreign direct investment, strategic commodity exports and regulation through its Gold Board initiative, for example, or even building strong buffers with the reserves at the Bank of Ghana, nothing should be off the table.

In the midst of all these, there is growing uncertainty about the future of the current IMF programme as President Mahama and his finance minister Dr. Ato Forson contradict each other on whether the programme may be extended or not.

With or without an extension, there is a strong appetite to review the programme. This may mean flexibility in fiscal targets to allow for more growth-oriented spending. Care is to be taken so as to not vitiate the resurging investor confidence brought by the change of government, however small that confidence is.

For many Ghanaians, Mahama and the National Democratic Congress’ (NDC) return is a good sign for the economy. The oversubscription in treasury bills and the massive rejections in some of the bids may well be a foretelling of what the reset agenda may bring.

But such is the goodwill that comes with new governments and Mahama must learn from errors of the one-time shining economic star of Africa called Ghana – which was the world’s fastest growing economy in 2019 – and be prudent.

Yes, Ghana’s economy needs a reset to deliver an improved standard of living and prosperity for all. But Mahama’s true test lies ahead – Can he turn the promise of a reset into a sustainable economic rebound for Ghana? Only time will tell. In the meantime, I wish the government well.

来源：CITI NEWSROOM

文：by Nii Larte Lartey

翻译：无尽夏

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